NFC playoff scenarios (10 November 2016)
Week 5 has been concluded establishing the NFC playoff scenarios going into the regular-season finales.While duffeldoffel's Reds have clinched the #1 seed, all of the remaining five clubs can hold out reasonable hopes to see some postseason action.
duffeldoffel's Reds (NFC Central, 5-0)
Their regular-season finale:
Season III, week 6: Prussian Warriors 7, duffeldoffel's Reds 35 (Final)
The Reds have clinched the Central Division title and the first-round bye. They will be hosting the winner of the NFC Wild Card Game in the NFC Championship Game.
Flash 80s (NFC North, 3-2)
Their regular-season finale:
Season III, week 6: frontmodes Kobras 32, Flash 80s 30 (Final/OT)
Games of their interest:
Season III, week 6: Lübeck Bay Seagulls 24, Moderate Drinkers 17 (Final)
Season III, week 6: Prussian Warriors 7, duffeldoffel's Reds 35 (Final)
The 80s will win their division, if:
- they beat the Kobras or
- they tie the Kobras and
- SEA win or tie vs DRI
Mathematical odds to win the division: 50.0%
The 80s will win a playoff berth, if:
- they beat the Kobras or
- they tie the Kobras and
- SEA win or tie vs DRI or
- RED win or tie vs WAR
Mathematical odds to win a playoff berth: 50.0%
Moderate Drinkers (NFC North, 3-2)
Their regular-season finale:
Season III, week 6: Lübeck Bay Seagulls 24, Moderate Drinkers 17 (Final)
Games of their interest:
Season III, week 6: frontmodes Kobras 32, Flash 80s 30 (Final/OT)
Season III, week 6: Prussian Warriors 7, duffeldoffel's Reds 35 (Final)
The Drinkers will win their division, if:
- they beat the Seagulls and
- KOB win or tie vs F80 or
- they tie the Seagulls and
- KOB win vs F80
Mathematical odds to win the division: 25.0%
The Drinkers will win a playoff berth, if:
- they beat the Seagulls or
- they tie the Seagulls and
- KOB win vs F80 or
- F80 win vs KOB and
- RED win or tie vs WAR or
- KOB@F80 ends in a tie and
- WAR@RED ends in a tie
Mathematical odds to win a playoff berth: 50.0%
Lübeck Bay Seagulls (NFC North, 2-3)
Their regular-season finale:
Season III, week 6: Lübeck Bay Seagulls 24, Moderate Drinkers 17 (Final)
Games of their interest:
Season III, week 6: frontmodes Kobras 32, Flash 80s 30 (Final/OT)
Season III, week 6: Prussian Warriors 7, duffeldoffel's Reds 35 (Final)
The Seagulls will win their division, if:
- they beat the Drinkers and
- KOB win vs F80
Mathematical odds to win the division: 25.0%
The Seagulls will win a playoff berth, if:
- they beat the Drinkers and
- KOB win vs F80 or
- F80 win vs KOB and
- RED win vs WAR
Mathematical odds to win a playoff berth: 37.5%
Prussian Warriors (NFC Central, 3-2)
Their regular-season finale:
Season III, week 6: Prussian Warriors 7, duffeldoffel's Reds 35 (Final)
Games of their interest:
Season III, week 6: Lübeck Bay Seagulls 24, Moderate Drinkers 17 (Final)
Season III, week 6: Prussian Warriors 7, duffeldoffel's Reds 35 (Final)
The Warriors will win the wild card, if:
- they beat the Reds and
- SEA win or tie vs DRI or
- KOB win or tie vs F80 or
- they tie the Reds and
- F80 win or tie vs KOB and
- SEA win vs DRI
Mathematical odds to win the wild card: 37.5%
frontmodes Kobras (NFC Central, 3-2)
Their regular-season finale:
Season III, week 6: frontmodes Kobras 32, Flash 80s 30 (Final/OT)
Games of their interest:
Season III, week 6: Prussian Warriors 7, duffeldoffel's Reds 35 (Final)
Season III, week 6: Lübeck Bay Seagulls 24, Moderate Drinkers 17 (Final)
The Kobras will win the wild card, if:
- they beat the 80s and
- RED win or tie vs WAR or
- they tie the 80s and
- RED win vs WAR and
- SEA win or tie vs DRI
Mathematical odds to win the wild card: 25.0%
All scenarios mentioned above are subject to correction without prior notice.
When calculating the odds to win the wild card, it is presumed that each team has a 50-percent chance to win their respective games and that no game will end in a tie.