Playoff scenarios updated (31 May 2013)
As the Moderate Drinkers have clinched their playoff spot and the Gothic Division title at the expense of the Prussian Warriors, there are four contenders left playing for three playoff berths up for grabs. Each of the remaining four regular-season finales under way may effect the outcome of the playoff race.Season II, Week 6:
zugschefz dieselz 34, duffeldoffel's Reds 27 (Final)
Mighty Beagles of Angedair 15, frontmodes Kobras 31 (Abandoned/QTR4, 0:12)
igorz malfunxionistz 29, Dicey Beasts 26 (Final/OT)
silentsound's Silentknights 28, MoRe's Moles 14 (Final)
Prussian Warriors 31, Moderate Drinkers 41 (Final)
Let's check out the updated scenarios of the remaining four contenders in descending order of their mathematical chances *) to make the playoffs:
duffeldoffel's Reds (Australian Division, 4-1)
Their regular-season finale:
Season II, week 6: zugschefz dieselz 34, duffeldoffel's Reds 27 (Final)
Games that might be of their interest:
Season II, week 6: igorz malfunxionistz 29, Dicey Beasts 26 (Final/OT)
Season II, week 6: silentsound's Silentknights 28, MoRe's Moles 14 (Final)
Season II, week 6: Mighty Beagles of Angedair 15, frontmodes Kobras 31 (Abandoned/QTR4, 0:12)
The Reds will make the playoffs, if:
- they beat or tie the dieselz or
- BEA win or tie vs MAL or
- SIL win or tie vs MOL or
- BGL win or tie vs KOB or
- BEA beat MOL on the combined-rank-in-points-scored-and-points-allowed tiebreaker (after week 5: BEA 4, MOL 8)
Mathematical chance that the Reds will make the playoffs: 96.875 percent
The Reds will win the Australian Division, if:
- they beat the dieselz and
- MAL win or tie vs BEA
Mathematical chance that the Reds will win the Australian Division: 25 percent
zugschefz dieselz (Australian Division, 4-1)
Their regular-season finale:
Season II, week 6: zugschefz dieselz 34, duffeldoffel's Reds 27 (Final)
Games that might be of their interest:
Season II, week 6: igorz malfunxionistz 29, Dicey Beasts 26 (Final/OT)
Season II, week 6: silentsound's Silentknights 28, MoRe's Moles 14 (Final)
The dieselz will make the playoffs, if:
- they beat or tie the Reds or
- MAL win vs BEA or
- SIL win or tie vs MOL
Mathematical chance that the dieselz will make the playoffs: 87.5 percent
The dieselz will win the Australian Division, if:
- they beat the Reds or
- they tie the Reds and
- MAL win or tie vs BEA
Mathematical chance that the dieselz will win the Australian Division: 50 percent
Dicey Beasts (Australian Division, 4-1)
Their regular-season finale:
Season II, week 6: igorz malfunxionistz 29, Dicey Beasts 26 (Final/OT)
Games that might be of their interest:
Season II, week 6: zugschefz dieselz 34, duffeldoffel's Reds 27 (Final)
Season II, week 6: silentsound's Silentknights 28, MoRe's Moles 14 (Final)
The Beasts will make the playoffs, if:
- they beat or tie the malfunxionistz or
- DIE win or tie vs RED or
- SIL win or tie vs MOL
Mathematical chance that the Beasts will make the playoffs: 87.5 percent
The Beasts will win the Australian Division, if:
- they beat the malfunxionistz and
- RED win or tie vs DIE
Mathematical chance that the Beasts will win the Australian Division: 25 percent
MoRe's Moles (Gothic Division, 3-2)
Their regular-season finale:
Season II, week 6: silentsound's Silentknights 28, MoRe's Moles 14 (Final)
Game of their interest:
Season II, week 6: zugschefz dieselz 34, duffeldoffel's Reds 27 (Final)
Games that might be of their interest:
Season II, week 6: igorz malfunxionistz 29, Dicey Beasts 26 (Final/OT)
Season II, week 6: Mighty Beagles of Angedair 15, frontmodes Kobras 31 (Abandoned/QTR4, 0:12)
The Moles will make the playoffs, if:
- they beat the Silentknights and
- RED win vs DIE or
- DIE win vs RED and
MAL win vs BEA and
KOB win vs BGL and
the Moles beat the Beasts on the combined-rank-in-points-scored-and-points-allowed tiebreaker (after week 5: MOL 8, BEA 4)
Mathematical chance that the Moles will make the playoffs: 28.125 percent
All above mentioned scenarios are subject to correction without prior notice.
*) When calculating the chances to make the playoffs or to win a division, it is presumed that each team still has a 50-percent chance to win their respective games or the two-way combined-rank-in-points-scored-and-allowed tiebreaker and that no game will end in a tie.