Playoff scenarios: all four spots up for grabs (27 April 2013)
Unlike last season when the divisional titles were clinched one week early, all four playoff spots will be up for grabs going into the regular-season finales:Season II, Week 6:
zugschefz dieselz 34, duffeldoffel's Reds 27 (Final)
Mighty Beagles of Angedair 15, frontmodes Kobras 31 (Abandoned/QTR4, 0:12)
igorz malfunxionistz 29, Dicey Beasts 26 (Final/OT)
silentsound's Silentknights 28, MoRe's Moles 14 (Final)
Prussian Warriors 31, Moderate Drinkers 41 (Final)
Three teams from each division are mathematically in the hunt to see some postseason action, however, it is very likely that all three contenders from the Australian Division will go through collectively.
Even though only in third place in the Australian Division (with tiebreakers applied) and in fourth place overall, defending QFL world champions duffeldoffel's Reds (4-1) enjoy the best playoff chances of all teams. But also zugschefz dieselz (4-1) and the Dicey Beasts (4-1) have every right to feel very comfortable as all three will have plenty of options to get the help required in case they lose their games.
In the Gothic Division, the Moderate Drinkers (3-2) face a do-or-die game against the reigning divisional champions Prussian Warriors (2-3). But unlike the Drinkers, the Warriors and MoRe's Moles (3-2) will need help to extend their seasons.
Let's check out the scenarios of the six contenders in descending order of their mathematical chances *) to make the playoffs:
duffeldoffel's Reds (Australian Division, 4-1)
Their regular-season finale:
Season II, week 6: zugschefz dieselz 34, duffeldoffel's Reds 27 (Final)
Games that might be of their interest:
Season II, week 6: igorz malfunxionistz 29, Dicey Beasts 26 (Final/OT)
Season II, week 6: silentsound's Silentknights 28, MoRe's Moles 14 (Final)
Season II, week 6: Prussian Warriors 31, Moderate Drinkers 41 (Final)
Season II, week 6: Mighty Beagles of Angedair 15, frontmodes Kobras 31 (Abandoned/QTR4, 0:12)
The Reds will make the playoffs, if:
- they beat or tie the dieselz or
- BEA win or tie vs MAL or
- SIL win or tie vs MOL or
- WAR win or tie vs DRI or
- BGL win or tie vs KOB or
- BEA beat MOL on the combined-rank-in-points-scored-and-points-allowed tiebreaker (after week 5: BEA 4, MOL 8)
Mathematical chance that the Reds will make the playoffs: 98.4375 percent
The Reds will win the Australian Division, if:
- they beat the dieselz and
- MAL win or tie vs BEA
Mathematical chance that the Reds will win the Australian Division: 25 percent
zugschefz dieselz (Australian Division, 4-1)
Their regular-season finale:
Season II, week 6: zugschefz dieselz 34, duffeldoffel's Reds 27 (Final)
Games that might be of their interest:
Season II, week 6: igorz malfunxionistz 29, Dicey Beasts 26 (Final/OT)
Season II, week 6: silentsound's Silentknights 28, MoRe's Moles 14 (Final)
Season II, week 6: Prussian Warriors 31, Moderate Drinkers 41 (Final)
The dieselz will make the playoffs, if:
- they beat or tie the Reds or
- MAL win vs BEA or
- SIL win or tie vs MOL or
- WAR win or tie vs DRI
Mathematical chance that the dieselz will make the playoffs: 93.75 percent
The dieselz will win the Australian Division, if:
- they beat the Reds or
- they tie the Reds and
- MAL win or tie vs BEA
Mathematical chance that the dieselz will win the Australian Division: 50 percent
Dicey Beasts (Australian Division, 4-1)
Their regular-season finale:
Season II, week 6: igorz malfunxionistz 29, Dicey Beasts 26 (Final/OT)
Games that might be of their interest:
Season II, week 6: zugschefz dieselz 34, duffeldoffel's Reds 27 (Final)
Season II, week 6: silentsound's Silentknights 28, MoRe's Moles 14 (Final)
Season II, week 6: Prussian Warriors 31, Moderate Drinkers 41 (Final)
The Beasts will make the playoffs, if:
- they beat or tie the malfunxionistz or
- DIE win or tie vs RED or
- SIL win or tie vs MOL or
- WAR win or tie vs DRI
Mathematical chance that the Beasts will make the playoffs: 93.75 percent
The Beasts will win the Australian Division, if:
- they beat the malfunxionistz and
- RED win or tie vs DIE
Mathematical chance that the Beasts will win the Australian Division: 25 percent
Moderate Drinkers (Gothic Division, 3-2)
Their regular-season finale:
Season II, week 6: Prussian Warriors 31, Moderate Drinkers 41 (Final)
Game that might be of their interest (only if they tie the Warriors):
Season II, week 6: silentsound's Silentknights 28, MoRe's Moles 14 (Final)
The Drinkers will make the playoffs and win the Gothic Division, if:
- they beat the Warriors or
- they tie the Warriors and
- SIL win or tie vs MOL
Mathematical chance that the Drinkers will make the playoffs and win the Gothic Division: 50 percent
The Drinkers cannot win a wild card.
MoRe's Moles (Gothic Division, 3-2)
Their regular-season finale:
Season II, week 6: silentsound's Silentknights 28, MoRe's Moles 14 (Final)
Game of their interest:
Season II, week 6: Prussian Warriors 31, Moderate Drinkers 41 (Final)
Games that might be of their interest:
Season II, week 6: igorz malfunxionistz 29, Dicey Beasts 26 (Final/OT)
Season II, week 6: zugschefz dieselz 34, duffeldoffel's Reds 27 (Final)
Season II, week 6: Mighty Beagles of Angedair 15, frontmodes Kobras 31 (Abandoned/QTR4, 0:12)
The Moles will make the playoffs, if:
- they beat the Silentknights and
- WAR win or tie vs DRI or
- RED win vs DIE or
- DIE win vs RED and
MAL win vs BEA and
KOB win vs BGL and
the Moles beat the Beasts on the combined-rank-in-points-scored-and-points-allowed tiebreaker (after week 5: MOL 8, BEA 4) or
- they tie the Silentknights and
- WAR win vs DRI
Mathematical chance that the Moles will make the playoffs: 39.0625 percent
The Moles will win the Gothic Division, if:
- they beat the Silentknights and
- WAR win or tie vs DRI or
- they tie the Silentknights and
- WAR win vs DRI
Mathematical chance that the Moles will win the Gothic Division: 25 percent
Prussian Warriors (Gothic Division, 2-3)
Their regular-season finale:
Season II, week 6: Prussian Warriors 31, Moderate Drinkers 41 (Final)
Game of their interest:
Season II, week 6: silentsound's Silentknights 28, MoRe's Moles 14 (Final)
The Warriors will make the playoffs and win the Gothic Division, if:
- they beat the Drinkers and
- SIL win vs MOL
Mathematical chance that the Warriors will make the playoffs and win the Gothic Division: 25 percent
The Warriors cannot win a wild card.
All above mentioned scenarios are subject to correction without prior notice.
*) When calculating the chances to make the playoffs or to win a division, it is presumed that each team has a 50-percent chance to win their respective games or the two-way combined-rank-in-points-scored-and-allowed tiebreaker and that no game will end in a tie.
* * *
The Mighty Beagles of Angedair, igorz malfunxionistz, silentsound's Silentknights and frontmodes Kobras were eliminated from playoff contention prior to the regular-season finales.
Both the Beagles and Malfs will be eligible to participate in the QFL all-star game, if the dieselz, Beasts and Reds all qualify for the playoffs as expected. They would be forming The Alpines to represent the Australian Division.
The 'Knights hopes to be eligible to join The Nordics representing the Gothic Division are quite slim as they need two contenders from their division to make the playoffs.